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Resum:
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The paper seeks to shed light on inflation dynamics of four new EU member states: the Czech
Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. To this end, the New Keynesian Phillips curve augmented
for open economies is estimated and additional statistical tests applied. We find the following. (1) The
claim of New Keynesians that the real marginal cost is the main inflation-forcing variable is fragile.
(2) Inflation seems to be driven by external factors. (3) Although inflation holds a forward-looking
component, the backward-looking component is substantial. An intuitive explanation for higher
inflation persistence may be rather adaptive than rational price setting of local firms. |