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Title:
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Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity
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Author:
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Ciccone, Antonio; Brückner, Markus
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Other authors:
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Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Departament d'Economia i Empresa |
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Abstract:
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According to the economic approach to political transitions, negative transitory economic shocks can give rise to a window of opportunity for democratic change. We examine this hypothesis using yearly rainfall variation over the 1980-2004 period in 41 Sub-Saharan African countries. We find that a 25% drop in rainfall increases the probability of a transition to democracy during the following two years by around 3 percentage points. A 5% fall in income due to low rainfall raises the probability of democratization by 7 percentage points. We also find that rainfall does not affect transitions from democracy to autocracy. |
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Publication date:
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2008-03-13 |
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Subject(s):
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Democratization, transitory economic shocks |
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Rights:
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Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús de Creative Commons, amb la qual es permet copiar, distribuir i comunicar públicament l'obra sempre que se'n citin l'autor original, la universitat i el departament i no se'n faci cap ús comercial ni obra derivada, tal com queda estipulat en la llicència d'ús (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/es/) |
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Document type:
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Working Paper |
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