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Resum:
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There is a widespread consensus in the literature that, as consequence of the demographic
transition, the current Spanish pension system will become unsustainable in the next decades.
In this article we evaluate the sustainability of the contributory pensions' sub-system, taking
into account the demographic projections by the Spanish Statistical Office (INE). A baseline
scenario is projected as well as several reforms are simulated, focusing on: (i) selective
immigration policy, (ii) changes in the way of setting the pensions and (iii) increase of the
legal age of retirement up to 68. The main results are the following. The current system
would not incur deficits until 2018, from then deficits will begin to be accumulated. The
expenditure in pensions practically would double (from 8.3 % in 2005 to 17.2 % in 2050). A
selective immigration policy -towards foreign young people- would help, but does not solve
the long-term sustainability of the current system. A policy that combines a pensions' growth
at a pace lower than productivity growth and extends the legal age of retirement up to 68
would give solvency to the system beyond 2029 |