The Coordinated Radio and Infrared Survey for High-Mass Star Formation (The CORNISH Survey). I. Survey Design

The Coordinated Radio and Infrared Survey for High-Mass Star Formation (The CORNISH Survey). I. Survey Design Hoare, M. G.; Purcell, C. R.; Churchwell, E. B.; Diamond, P.; Cotton, W. D.; Chandler, C. J.; Smethurst, S.; Kurtz, S. E.; Mundy, L. G.; Dougherty, S. M.; Fender, R. P.; Fuller, G. A.; Jackson, J. M.; Garrington, S. T.; Gledhill, T. R.; Goldsmith, P. F.; Lumsden, S. L.; Martí, J.; Moore, T. J. T.; Paredes i Poy, Josep Maria We describe the motivation, design, and implementation of the CORNISH survey, an arcsecondresolution radio continuum survey of the inner galactic plane at 5 GHz using the Very Large Array (VLA). It is a blind survey coordinated with the northern SpitzerGLIMPSE I region covering 10°

The Coordinated Radio and Infrared Survey for High-mass Star Formation. II. Source Catalog

The Coordinated Radio and Infrared Survey for High-mass Star Formation. II. Source Catalog Purcell, C. R.; Hoare, M. G.; Cotton, W. D.; Lumsden, S. L.; Urquhart, J. S.; Chandler, C.; Churchwell, E. B.; Diamond, P.; Dougherty, S. M.; Fender, R. P.; Fuller, G.; Garrington, S. T.; Gledhill, T. M.; Goldsmith, P. F.; Hindson, L.; Jackson, J. M.; Kurtz, S. E.; Martí, J.; Moore, T. J. T.; Paredes i Poy, Josep Maria The CORNISH project is the highest resolution radio continuum survey of the Galactic plane to date. It is the 5 GHz radio continuum part of a series of multi-wavelength surveys that focus on the northern GLIMPSE region (10° < l < 65°), observed by the Spitzer satellite in the mid-infrared. Observations with the Very Large Array in B and BnA configurations have yielded a 1.''5 resolution Stokes I map with a root mean square noise level better than 0.4 mJy beam
1. Here we describe the data-processing methods and data characteristics, and present a new, uniform catalog of compact radio emission. This includes an implementation of automatic deconvolution that provides much more reliable imaging than standard CLEANing. A rigorous investigation of the noise characteristics and reliability of source detection has been carried out. We show that the survey is optimized to detect emission on size scales up to 14'' and for unresolved sources the catalog is more than 90% complete at a flux density of 3.9 mJy. We have detected 3062 sources above a 7σ detection limit and present their ensemble properties. The catalog is highly reliable away from regions containing poorly sampled extended emission, which comprise less than 2% of the survey area. Imaging problems have been mitigated by down-weighting the shortest spacings and potential artifacts flagged via a rigorous manual inspection with reference to the Spitzer infrared data. We present images of the most common source types found: H II regions, planetary nebulae, and radio galaxies. The CORNISH data and catalog are available online at http://cornish.leeds.ac.uk.

Influencia de la orografía y de la inestabilidad convectiva en la distribución espacial de lluvias extremas en Cataluña

Influencia de la orografía y de la inestabilidad convectiva en la distribución espacial de lluvias extremas en Cataluña Llasat Botija, María del Carmen Se han estudiado metódicamente todos 1os episodios de inundaciones que han afectado a Cataluña en la última mitad de siglo, especialmente el de noviembre de 1982, insistiendo en la distribución espacial de la lluvia y su conexin con la orografa. Para ello, a partir de los radiosondeos de Palma de Mallorca se ha analizado la inestabilidad convectiva obteniéndose los ascensos mínimos necesarios para la inestabilización. Asimismo, se han trazado las lineas de corriente en la baja troposfera lo que ha permitido conocer la dirección del flujo dominante. Se incluye también alguna inforrnación de carácter hidrológico.

Variación regional del coeficiente de atenuación de las ondas Rayleigh en el escudo europeo

Variación regional del coeficiente de atenuación de las ondas Rayleigh en el escudo europeo Correig i Blanchar, Antoni; Canas, J. A. (José Antonio) A partir del análisis del modo fundamental de las ondas Rayleigh generadas por tres terremotos situados en las Azores, Sicilia y el Mar Negro se obtiene la variación regional del coeficiente de atenuación en el escudo europeo para un intervalo de periodos de 15-80 s. El método de análisis ha consistido en comparar los espectros de amplitudes observados con los calculados teóricamente. Para el calculo de estos últimos se ha utilizado un nuevo método consistente en calcular la función global de la fuente a partir de un proceso de mínimos cuadrados. Los resultados son los siguientes.

Anelasticidad de la zona estable euroasiática y de la zona europea occidental

Anelasticidad de la zona estable euroasiática y de la zona europea occidental Canas, J. A. (José Antonio); Correig i Blanchar, Antoni La teoria de inversión en su forma estocastica ha sido aplicada a dos conjuntos de coeficientes de atenuación de las ondas de Rayleigh correspondientes a la zona estable Euroasiatica y a la zona Europea Occidental. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que las propiedades anelásticas bajo dichas zonas son distintas. Europa Occidental se halla caracterizada por valores mas bajos de los factores especificos de calidad de las ondas de cizalla(Qbeta) que los correspondientes a la zona Estable Euroasiática. Las profundiades a las que los valores de Qbeta decrecen más rápidamente son alrededorde 60 km para Europa Occidental y de 40 km para la zona Estable Euroasiática. La comparación con un estudio de atenuación en el Océano Atlántico muestra que los coeficientes de atenuación correspondientes a la zona Europea Occidental pueden ser considerados representativos para dicha zona.

Valores medios del coeficiente de atenuación de las ondas Rayleigh para Europa occidental

Valores medios del coeficiente de atenuación de las ondas Rayleigh para Europa occidental Correig i Blanchar, Antoni; Banda, E. (Enric); Canas, J. A. (José Antonio) En este estudio presentamos los valores medios del coeficiente de atenuación de las ondas Rayleigh para Europa occidental, obtenidos a partir del estudio de tres terremotos situados en las Azores, Sicilia y Mar Negro y registrados por estaciones europeas. Los resultados presentan una gran dispersión, mostrando claramente la inhomogeneidad de la zona. Para el terremoto del Atlántico, los resultados son muy coherentes y presentan unos valores del coeficiente de atenuación comparables, aunque ligeramente superiores para periodos cortos, a los haliados para la region estable de la placa Euroasiática.

Estudio del mecanismo focal de los terremotos a partir de ondas sísmicas. Aplicación a terremotos de las dorsales del Atlántico y Oriental del Pacífico

Estudio del mecanismo focal de los terremotos a partir de ondas sísmicas. Aplicación a terremotos de las dorsales del Atlántico y Oriental del Pacífico Correig i Blanchar, Antoni En este trabajo se presenta un estudio de los parámetros dinámicos de terremotos ocurridos bajo las dorsales del Atlántico y Oriental del Pacífico, así como de la variación regional del coeficiente de atenuación de las ondas Rayleigh para la región oriental del Pacífico. Se ha obtenido un coeficiente de atenuación anormalmente alto bajo la dorsal del Pacífico e importantes diferencias en las condiciones de similaridad para las dos dorsales. Comparando los parámetros dinámicos obtenidos para las dorsales (zonas de tensión) con parámetros obtenidos para zonas de subducción (zonas de compresión), resultan ser similares excepto para la caída de esfuerzos. Los resultados obtenidos se interpretan en función de la actividad tectónica de las dorsales.

Determinación de la longitud de la falla y velocidad de ruptura para terremotos de magnitud media

Determinación de la longitud de la falla y velocidad de ruptura para terremotos de magnitud media Lana Pons, Xavier; Correig i Blanchar, Antoni En el proceso de inversión de la función de directividad para la obtención de la longitud de falla y velocidad de mptura, en el caso de terremotos de magnitud media, es muy dificil obtener ambos parámetros independientemente y deben hacerse hipótesis sobre uno de los dos parámetros. Proponemos una solución a este problema mediante un proceso iterativo, que iniciamos con un valor hipotético de la velocidad de ruptura. El resultado final resulta ser independiente del valor de partida. Mediante este proceso hemos obtenido la longitud de falla y velocidad de ruptura de dos terremotos, el del 18-nov-1970, ocurrido en la Dorsal Oriental del Pacifico, y el del 4-jul-1966, ocurrido en la Dorsal Centro-Atlántica. Para el sismo del 18-nov-1970 los valores obtenidos en la b = (18 4- 1) km v = (2.3 f 0.1) kmls y para el sismo del 4-jul-1966 b = (19 f 2) km, v = (2.1 i 0.1) kmls. Las desviaciones tipicas de estos parámetros, del orden del 5-10 %, son inferiores a las obtenidas en trabajos previos.

Estudio palinologico del Plioceno de San Onofre (Tarragona)

Estudio palinologico del Plioceno de San Onofre (Tarragona) Solé de Porta, N.; Valle Hernández, María F. Se realiza el estudio palinológico de 29 letras de edad pliocénica, procedentes de San Onofre (Tortosa, Tarragona), identificándose 88 formas. La parte más inferior de la columna estratigráfica ha resultado la más abundante, observándose un empobrecimiento de la microflora hacia la parte más superior de la misma. Destacan las formas arbóreas sobre las no arbóreas, representando en algunas muestras (20,21) el 100% de la vegetación. Algunos aspectos a destacar son: Pinus tipo diploxylon sobresale siempre sobre Pinus tipo haploxylon. Las Taxodiaceae (Taxodium y Sciadopirys), no sobrepasan el 6% del total. Ausencia total de Artemisia para todos los niveles. La sección, en base a los foraminíferos, se ha atribuido a la zona de Globorotalia crassaformis

Sobre la generacion de sismogramas sinteticos en un medio semiinfinito

Sobre la generacion de sismogramas sinteticos en un medio semiinfinito Batlló Ortiz, Josep; Correig i Blanchar, Antoni En base a un estudio sobre el modelado de la generación, transmisión y registro de seismos se ha construido un paquete de programas que permite la generación de sismogramas sintéticos en un medio semiinfinito a partir de cuatro tipos principales de fuentes canónicas. válidas para simular un amplio espectro de mecanismos focales.

Improving QPF by blending techniques at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia

Improving QPF by blending techniques at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia Atencia, A.; Rigo Ribas, Bartolomé; Sairouni, A.; Moré, J.; Bech, Joan; Vilaclara, Eliseu; Cunillera Grañó, Jordi; Llasat Botija, María del Carmen; Garrote, L. The current operational very short-term and short-term quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) is made by three different methodologies: Advection of the radar reflectivity field (ADV), Identification, tracking and forecasting of convective structures (CST) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models using observational data assimilation (radar, satellite, etc.). These precipitation forecasts have different characteristics, lead time and spatial resolutions. The objective of this study is to combine these methods in order to obtain a single and optimized QPF at each lead time. This combination (blending) of the radar forecast (ADV and CST) and precipitation forecast from NWP model is carried out by means of different methodologies according to the prediction horizon. Firstly, in order to take advantage of the rainfall location and intensity from radar observations, a phase correction technique is applied to the NWP output to derive an additional corrected forecast (MCO). To select the best precipitation estimation in the first and second hour (t+1 h and t+2 h), the information from radar advection (ADV) and the corrected outputs from the model (MCO) are mixed by using different weights, which vary dynamically, according to indexes that quantify the quality of these predictions. This procedure has the ability to integrate the skill of rainfall location and patterns that are given by the advection of radar reflectivity field with the capacity of generating new precipitation areas from the NWP models. From the third hour (t+3 h), as radar-based forecasting has generally low skills, only the quantitative precipitation forecast from model is used. This blending of different sources of prediction is verified for different types of episodes (convective, moderately convective and stratiform) to obtain a robust methodology for implementing it in an operational and dynamic way.

Predictive ability of severe rainfall events over Catalonia for the year 2008

Predictive ability of severe rainfall events over Catalonia for the year 2008 Comellas, A.; Molini, L.; Parodi, A.; Sairouni, A.; Llasat Botija, María del Carmen; Siccardi, F. This paper analyses the predictive ability of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and the so-called "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF). With this aim, the full set of warnings issued by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) for potentially-dangerous events due to severe precipitation has been analysed for the year 2008. For each of the 37 warnings, the QPFs obtained from the limited-area model MM5 have been verified against hourly precipitation data provided by the rain gauge network covering Catalonia (NE of Spain), managed by SMC. For a group of five selected case studies, a QPF comparison has been undertaken between the MM5 and COSMO-I7 limited-area models. Although MM5's predictive ability has been examined for these five cases by making use of satellite data, this paper only shows in detail the heavy precipitation event on the 9¿10 May 2008. Finally, the "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF) issued by SMC at regional scale have also been tested against hourly precipitation observations. Verification results show that for long events (&24 h) MM5 tends to overestimate total precipitation, whereas for short events (¿24 h) the model tends instead to underestimate precipitation. The analysis of the five case studies concludes that most of MM5's QPF errors are mainly triggered by very poor representation of some of its cloud microphysical species, particularly the cloud liquid water and, to a lesser degree, the water vapor. The models' performance comparison demonstrates that MM5 and COSMO-I7 are on the same level of QPF skill, at least for the intense-rainfall events dealt with in the five case studies, whilst the warnings based on RPF issued by SMC have proven fairly correct when tested against hourly observed precipitation for 6-h intervals and at a small region scale. Throughout this study, we have only dealt with (SMC-issued) warning episodes in order to analyse deterministic (MM5 and COSMO-I7) and probabilistic (SMC) rainfall forecasts; therefore we have not taken into account those episodes that might (or might not) have been missed by the official SMC warnings. Therefore, whenever we talk about "misses", it is always in relation to the deterministic LAMs' QPFs.

Trends in indices of daily precipitation extremes in Catalonia (NE Spain), 1951-2003

Trends in indices of daily precipitation extremes in Catalonia (NE Spain), 1951-2003 Turco, M.; Llasat Botija, María del Carmen The aim of this paper is to quantitatively characterize the climatology of daily precipitation indices in Catalonia (northeastern Iberian Peninsula) from 1951 to 2003. This work has been performed analyzing a subset of the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) precipitation indices calculated from a new interpolated dataset of daily precipitation, namely SPAIN02, regular at 0.2° horizontal resolution (around 20 km) and from two high-quality stations: the Ebro and Fabra observatories. Using a jack-knife technique, we have found that the sampling error of the SPAIN02 regional averaged is relatively low. The trend analysis has been implemented using a Circular Block Bootstrap procedure applicable to non-normal distributions and autocorrelated series. A running trend analysis has been applied to analyze the trend persistence. No general trends at a regional scale are observed, considering the annual or the seasonal regional averaged series of all the indices for all the time windows considered. Only the consecutive dry days index (CDD) at annual scale shows a locally coherent spatial trend pattern; around 30% of the Catalonia area has experienced an increase of around 2¿3 days decade¿1. The Ebro and Fabra observatories show a similar CDD trend, mainly due to the summer contribution. Besides this, a significant decrease in total precipitation (around ¿10 mm decade¿1) and in the index "highest precipitation amount in five-day period" (RX5DAY, around ¿5 mm decade¿1), have been found in summer for the Ebro observatory.

Tornadoes and waterspouts in Catalonia (1950-2009)

Tornadoes and waterspouts in Catalonia (1950-2009) Gayà, M.; Llasat Botija, María del Carmen; Arús Dumenjó, Joan This paper presents a preliminary climatology of tornadoes and waterspouts in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula). A database spanning 60 yr (1950-2009) has been developed on the basis of information collected from various sources such as weather reports, insurance companies, newspapers and damage surveys. This database has been subjected to a rigorous validation process, and the climatology describes its main features: timing, spatial pattern, and trends in the tornado and waterspout distribution. Results show the highest concentration of tornadoes from August to October, the highest density in the heavily populated coastal areas and a growing positive trend that is likely more closely linked to an increase in observation and perception rather than a real climatic trend.

Analysis of warm season thunderstorms using an object-oriented tracking method based on radar and total lightning data

Analysis of warm season thunderstorms using an object-oriented tracking method based on radar and total lightning data Rigo Ribas, Bartolomé; Pineda, Nicolau; Bech, Joan Monitoring thunderstorms activity is an essential part of operational weather surveillance given their potential hazards, including lightning, hail, heavy rainfall, strong winds or even tornadoes. This study has two main objectives: firstly, the description of a methodology, based on radar and total lightning data to characterise thunderstorms in real-time; secondly, the application of this methodology to 66 thunderstorms that affected Catalonia (NE Spain) in the summer of 2006. An object-oriented tracking procedure is employed, where different observation data types generate four different types of objects (radar 1-km CAPPI reflectivity composites, radar reflectivity volumetric data, cloud-to-ground lightning data and intra-cloud lightning data). In the framework proposed, these objects are the building blocks of a higher level object, the thunderstorm. The methodology is demonstrated with a dataset of thunderstorms whose main characteristics, along the complete life cycle of the convective structures (development, maturity and dissipation), are described statistically. The development and dissipation stages present similar durations in most cases examined. On the contrary, the duration of the maturity phase is much more variable and related to the thunderstorm intensity, defined here in terms of lightning flash rate. Most of the activity of IC and CG flashes is registered in the maturity stage. In the development stage little CG flashes are observed (2% to 5%), while for the dissipation phase is possible to observe a few more CG flashes (10% to 15%). Additionally, a selection of thunderstorms is used to examine general life cycle patterns, obtained from the analysis of normalized (with respect to thunderstorm total duration and maximum value of variables considered) thunderstorm parameters. Among other findings, the study indicates that the normalized duration of the three stages of thunderstorm life cycle is similar in most thunderstorms, with the longest duration corresponding to the maturity stage (approximately 80% of the total time).

Preliminary results of the Social Impact Research Group of MEDEX: the request database (2000-2002) of two Meteorological Services

Preliminary results of the Social Impact Research Group of MEDEX: the request database (2000-2002) of two Meteorological Services Amaro, J.; Gayà, M.; Aran Mayoral, Miquel; Llasat Botija, María del Carmen One of the aims of the MEDEX project is to improve the knowledge of high-impact weather events in the Mediterranean. According to the guidelines of this project, a pilot study was carried out in two regions of Spain (the Balearic Islands and Catalonia) by the Social Impact Research group of MEDEX. The main goal is to suggest some general and suitable criteria about how to analyse requests received in Meteorological Services arising out of the damage caused by weather events. Thus, all the requests received between 2000 and 2002 at the Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya as well as at the Division of AEMET in the Balearic Islands were analysed. Firstly, the proposed criteria in order to build the database are defined and discussed. Secondly, the temporal distribution of the requests for damage claims is analysed. On average, almost half of them were received during the first month after the event happened. During the first six months, the percentage increases by 90%. Thirdly, various factors are taken into account to determine the impact of specific events on society. It is remarkable that the greatest number of requests is for those episodes with simultaneous heavy rain and strong wind, and finally, those that are linked to high population density.

A reflection about the social and technological aspects in flood risk management - the case of the Italian Civil Protection

A reflection about the social and technological aspects in flood risk management - the case of the Italian Civil Protection Llasat Botija, María del Carmen; Siccardi, F. The right of a person to be protected from natural hazards is a characteristic of the social and economical development of the society. This paper is a contribution to the reflection about the role of Civil Protection organizations in a modern society. The paper is based in the inaugural conference made by the authors on the 9th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms. Two major issues are considered. The first one is sociological; the Civil Protection organizations and the responsible administration of the land use planning should be perceived as reliable as possible, in order to get consensus on the restrictions they pose, temporary or definitely, on the individual free use of the territory as well as in the entire warning system. The second one is technological: in order to be reliable they have to issue timely alert and warning to the population at large, but such alarms should be as "true" as possible. With this aim, the paper summarizes the historical evolution of the risk assessment, starting from the original concept of "hazard", introducing the concepts of "scenario of event" and "scenario of risk" and ending with a discussion about the uncertainties and limits of the most advanced and efficient tools to predict, to forecast and to observe the ground effects affecting people and their properties. The discussion is centred in the case of heavy rains and flood events in the North-West of Mediterranean Region.

A press database on natural risks and its application in the study of floods in Northeastern Spain

A press database on natural risks and its application in the study of floods in Northeastern Spain Llasat Botija, María del Carmen; Llasat Botija, Montserrat; López, L. The aim of this work is to introduce a systematic press database on natural hazards and climate change in Catalonia (NE of Spain) and to analyze its potential application to social-impact studies. For this reason, a review of the concepts of risk, hazard, vulnerability and social perception is also included. This database has been built for the period 1982¿2007 and contains all the news related with those issues published by the oldest still-active newspaper in Catalonia. Some parameters are registered for each article and for each event, including criteria that enable us to determine the importance accorded to it by the newspaper, and a compilation of information about it. This ACCESS data base allows each article to be classified on the basis of the seven defined topics and key words, as well as summary information about the format and structuring of the new itself, the social impact of the event and data about the magnitude or intensity of the event. The coverage given to this type of news has been assessed because of its influence on construction of the social perception of natural risk and climate change, and as a potential source of information about them. The treatment accorded by the press to different risks is also considered. More than 14 000 press articles have been classified. Results show that the largest number of news items for the period 1982¿2007 relates to forest fires and droughts, followed by floods and heavy rainfalls, although floods are the major risk in the region of study. Two flood events recorded in 2002 have been analyzed in order to show an example of the role of the press information as indicator of risk perception.

An analysis of the evolution of hydrometeorological extremes in newspapers: the case of Catalonia, 1982-2006

An analysis of the evolution of hydrometeorological extremes in newspapers: the case of Catalonia, 1982-2006 Llasat Botija, María del Carmen; Llasat Botija, Montserrat; Barnolas, M.; López, L.; Altava-Ortiz, V. This contribution analyzes the evolution of perception of certain natural hazards over the past 25 years in a Mediterranean region. Articles from newspapers have been used as indicator. To this end a specific Spanish journal has been considered and an ACCESS database has been created with the summarized information from each news item. The database includes data such as the location of each specific article in the newspaper, its length, the number of pictures and figures, the headlines and a summary of the published information, including all the instrumental data. The study focused on hydrometeorological extremes, mainly floods and droughts, in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula. The number of headlines per event, trends and other data have been analyzed and compared with "measured" information, in order to identify any bias that could lead to an erroneous perception of the phenomenon. The SPI index (a drought index based on standardized accumulated precipitation) has been calculated for the entire region, and has been used for the drought analysis, while a geodatabase implemented on a GIS built for all the floods recorded in Catalonia since 1900 (INUNGAMA) has been used to analyze flood evolution. Results from a questionnaire about the impact of natural hazards in two specific places have been also used to discuss the various perceptions between rural and urban settings. Results show a better correlation between the news about drought or water scarcity and SPI than between news on floods in Catalonia and the INUNGAMA database. A positive trend has been found for non-catastrophic floods, which is explained by decrease of the perception thresholds, the increase of population density in the most flood-prone areas and changes in land use.

An observational study of the 7 September 2005 Barcelona tornado outbreak

An observational study of the 7 September 2005 Barcelona tornado outbreak Bech, Joan; Pascual, R.; Rigo Ribas, Bartolomé; Pineda, Nicolau; López, J. M.; Arús Dumenjó, Joan; Gayà, M. This paper presents an observational study of the tornado outbreak that took place on the 7 September 2005 in the Llobregat delta river, affecting a densely populated and urbanised area and the Barcelona International airport (NE Spain). The site survey confirmed at least five short-lived tornadoes. Four of them were weak (F0, F1) and the other one was significant (F2 on the Fujita scale). They started mostly as waterspouts and moved later inland causing extensive damage estimated in 9 million Euros, three injured people but fortunately no fatalities. Large scale forcing was provided by upper level diffluence and low level warm air advection. Satellite and weather radar images revealed the development of the cells that spawned the waterspouts along a mesoscale convergence line in a highly sheared and relatively low buoyant environment. Further analysis indicated characteristics that could be attributed indistinctively to non-supercell or to mini-supercell thunderstorms.

Modelling of weather radar echoes from anomalous propagation using a hybrid parabolic equation method and NWP model data

Modelling of weather radar echoes from anomalous propagation using a hybrid parabolic equation method and NWP model data Bebbington, D.; Rae, S.; Bech, Joan; Codina, Bernat; Picanyol, M. Contamination of weather radar echoes by anomalous propagation (anaprop) mechanisms remains a serious issue in quality control of radar precipitation estimates. Although significant progress has been made identifying clutter due to anaprop there is no unique method that solves the question of data reliability without removing genuine data. The work described here relates to the development of a software application that uses a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to obtain the temperature, humidity and pressure fields to calculate the three dimensional structure of the atmospheric refractive index structure, from which a physically based prediction of the incidence of clutter can be made. This technique can be used in conjunction with existing methods for clutter removal by modifying parameters of detectors or filters according to the physical evidence for anomalous propagation conditions. The parabolic equation method (PEM) is a well established technique for solving the equations for beam propagation in a non-uniformly stratified atmosphere, but although intrinsically very efficient, is not sufficiently fast to be practicable for near real-time modelling of clutter over the entire area observed by a typical weather radar. We demonstrate a fast hybrid PEM technique that is capable of providing acceptable results in conjunction with a high-resolution terrain elevation model, using a standard desktop personal computer. We discuss the performance of the method and approaches for the improvement of the model profiles in the lowest levels of the troposphere.

Radar analysis of the life cycle of mesoscale convective systems during the 10 June 2000 event

Radar analysis of the life cycle of mesoscale convective systems during the 10 June 2000 event Rigo Ribas, Bartolomé; Llasat Botija, María del Carmen The 10 June 2000 event was the largest flash flood event that occurred in the Northeast of Spain in the late 20th century, both as regards its meteorological features and its considerable social impact. This paper focuses on analysis of the structures that produced the heavy rainfalls, especially from the point of view of meteorological radar. Due to the fact that this case is a good example of a Mediterranean flash flood event, a final objective of this paper is to undertake a description of the evolution of the rainfall structure that would be sufficiently clear to be understood at an interdisciplinary forum. Then, it could be useful not only to improve conceptual meteorological models, but also for application in downscaling models. The main precipitation structure was a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that crossed the region and that developed as a consequence of the merging of two previous squall lines. The paper analyses the main meteorological features that led to the development and triggering of the heavy rainfalls, with special emphasis on the features of this MCS, its life cycle and its dynamic features. To this end, 2-D and 3-D algorithms were applied to the imagery recorded over the complete life cycle of the structures, which lasted approximately 18 h. Mesoscale and synoptic information were also considered. Results show that it was an NS-MCS, quasi-stationary during its stage of maturity as a consequence of the formation of a convective train, the different displacement directions of the 2-D structures and the 3-D structures, including the propagation of new cells, and the slow movement of the convergence line associated with the Mediterranean mesoscale low.

Statistical analysis and modelling of weather radar beam propagation conditions in the Po Valley (Italy)

Statistical analysis and modelling of weather radar beam propagation conditions in the Po Valley (Italy) Fornasiero, A.; Alberoni, P. P.; Bech, Joan Ground clutter caused by anomalous propagation (anaprop) can affect seriously radar rain rate estimates, particularly in fully automatic radar processing systems, and, if not filtered, can produce frequent false alarms. A statistical study of anomalous propagation detected from two operational C-band radars in the northern Italian region of Emilia Romagna is discussed, paying particular attention to its diurnal and seasonal variability. The analysis shows a high incidence of anaprop in summer, mainly in the morning and evening, due to the humid and hot summer climate of the Po Valley, particularly in the coastal zone. Thereafter, a comparison between different techniques and datasets to retrieve the vertical profile of the refractive index gradient in the boundary layer is also presented. In particular, their capability to detect anomalous propagation conditions is compared. Furthermore, beam path trajectories are simulated using a multilayer ray-tracing model and the influence of the propagation conditions on the beam trajectory and shape is examined. High resolution radiosounding data are identified as the best available dataset to reproduce accurately the local propagation conditions, while lower resolution standard TEMP data suffers from interpolation degradation and Numerical Weather Prediction model data (Lokal Model) are able to retrieve a tendency to superrefraction but not to detect ducting conditions. Observing the ray tracing of the centre, lower and upper limits of the radar antenna 3-dB half-power main beam lobe it is concluded that ducting layers produce a change in the measured volume and in the power distribution that can lead to an additional error in the reflectivity estimate and, subsequently, in the estimated rainfall rate.

Estimation of the extreme flash flood evolution in Barcelona county from 1351 to 2005

Estimation of the extreme flash flood evolution in Barcelona county from 1351 to 2005 Barrera Escoda, Antonio; Llasat Botija, María del Carmen; Barriendos i Vallvé, Mariano Every year, flash floods cause economic losses and major problems for undertaking daily activity in the Catalonia region (NE Spain). Sometimes catastrophic damage and casualties occur. When a long term analysis of floods is undertaken, a question arises regarding the changing role of the vulnerability and the hazard in risk evolution. This paper sets out to give some information to deal with this question, on the basis of analysis of all the floods that have occurred in Barcelona county (Catalonia) since the 14th century, as well as the flooded area, urban evolution, impacts and the weather conditions for any of most severe events. With this objective, the identification and classification of historical floods, and characterisation of flash-floods among these, have been undertaken. Besides this, the main meteorological factors associated with recent flash floods in this city and neighbouring regions are well-known. On the other hand, the identification of rainfall trends that could explain the historical evolution of flood hazard occurrence in this city has been analysed. Finally, identification of the influence of urban development on the vulnerability to floods has been carried out. Barcelona city has been selected thanks to its long continuous data series (daily rainfall data series, since 1854; one of the longest rainfall rate series of Europe, since 1921) and for the accurate historical archive information that is available (since the Roman Empire for the urban evolution). The evolution of flood occurrence shows the existence of oscillations in the earlier and later modern-age periods that can be attributed to climatic variability, evolution of the perception threshold and changes in vulnerability. A great increase of vulnerability can be assumed for the period 1850¿1900. The analysis of the time evolution for the Barcelona rainfall series (1854¿2000) shows that no trend exists, although, due to changes in urban planning, flash-floods impact has altered over this time. The number of catastrophic flash floods has diminished, although the extraordinary ones have increased.

The cases of June 2000, November 2002 and September 2002 as examples of Mediterranean floods

The cases of June 2000, November 2002 and September 2002 as examples of Mediterranean floods Milelli, M.; Llasat Botija, María del Carmen; Ducrocq, V. Four flood events that affected three different countries are here described in terms of meteorological genesis and in terms of consequences on the population and on the territory. Each event is a good representative of a class of phenomena that produce important effects on the urban and extra-urban tissue and that must be taken into account in an optic of civil protection and risk evaluation. This is the subject of the HYDROPTIMET project, part of the Interreg IIIB program, which is collocated in the framework of the prevention of natural hazards and, in particular, those related to severe meteo-hydrological events. This paper aims at being a general introduction of the four events which are the subject of more detailed studies, already published or under submission.

A limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

A limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods Mariani, Simone; Casaioli, M.; Accadia, C.; Llasat Botija, María del Carmen; Pasi, F.; Davolio, S.; Elementi, M.; Ficca, G.; Romero, R. In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

A methodology for the classification of convective structures using meteorological radar: Application to heavy rainfall events on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula

A methodology for the classification of convective structures using meteorological radar: Application to heavy rainfall events on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula Rigo Ribas, Bartolomé; Llasat Botija, María del Carmen During the period 1996-2000, forty-three heavy rainfall events have been detected in the Internal Basins of Catalonia (Northeastern of Spain). Most of these events caused floods and serious damage. This high number leads to the need for a methodology to classify them, on the basis of their surface rainfall distribution, their internal organization and their physical features. The aim of this paper is to show a methodology to analyze systematically the convective structures responsible of those heavy rainfall events on the basis of the information supplied by the meteorological radar. The proposed methodology is as follows. Firstly, the rainfall intensity and the surface rainfall pattern are analyzed on the basis of the raingauge data. Secondly, the convective structures at the lowest level are identified and characterized by using a 2-D algorithm, and the convective cells are identified by using a 3-D procedure that looks for the reflectivity cores in every radar volume. Thirdly, the convective cells (3-D) are associated with the 2-D structures (convective rainfall areas). This methodology has been applied to the 43 heavy rainfall events using the meteorological radar located near Barcelona and the SAIH automatic raingauge network.

A flood geodatabase and its climatological applications: the case of Catalonia for the last century

A flood geodatabase and its climatological applications: the case of Catalonia for the last century Barnolas, M.; Llasat Botija, María del Carmen Floods are the natural hazards that produce the highest number of casualties and material damage in the Western Mediterranean. An improvement in flood risk assessment and study of a possible increase in flooding occurrence are therefore needed. To carry out these tasks it is important to have at our disposal extensive knowledge on historical floods and to find an efficient way to manage this geographical data. In this paper we present a complete flood database spanning the 20th century for the whole of Catalonia (NE Spain), which includes documentary information (affected areas and damage) and instrumental information (meteorological and hydrological records). This geodatabase, named Inungama, has been implemented on a GIS (Geographical Information System) in order to display all the information within a given geographical scenario, as well as to carry out an analysis thereof using queries, overlays and calculus. Following a description of the type and amount of information stored in the database and the structure of the information system, the first applications of Inungama are presented. The geographical distribution of floods shows the localities which are more likely to be flooded, confirming that the most affected municipalities are the most densely populated ones in coastal areas. Regarding the existence of an increase in flooding occurrence, a temporal analysis has been carried out, showing a steady increase over the last 30 years.

Enhanced radar precipitation estimates using a combined clutter and beam blockage correction technique

Enhanced radar precipitation estimates using a combined clutter and beam blockage correction technique Fornasiero, A.; Bech, Joan; Alberoni,P.P. Weather radar observations are currently the most reliable method for remote sensing of precipitation. However, a number of factors affect the quality of radar observations and may limit seriously automated quantitative applications of radar precipitation estimates such as those required in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data assimilation or in hydrological models. In this paper, a technique to correct two different problems typically present in radar data is presented and evaluated. The aspects dealt with are non-precipitating echoes - caused either by permanent ground clutter or by anomalous propagation of the radar beam (anaprop echoes) - and also topographical beam blockage. The correction technique is based in the computation of realistic beam propagation trajectories based upon recent radiosonde observations instead of assuming standard radio propagation conditions. The correction consists of three different steps: 1) calculation of a Dynamic Elevation Map which provides the minimum clutter-free antenna elevation for each pixel within the radar coverage; 2) correction for residual anaprop, checking the vertical reflectivity gradients within the radar volume; and 3) topographical beam blockage estimation and correction using a geometric optics approach. The technique is evaluated with four case studies in the region of the Po Valley (N Italy) using a C-band Doppler radar and a network of raingauges providing hourly precipitation measurements. The case studies cover different seasons, different radio propagation conditions and also stratiform and convective precipitation type events. After applying the proposed correction, a comparison of the radar precipitation estimates with raingauges indicates a general reduction in both the root mean squared error and the fractional error variance indicating the efficiency and robustness of the procedure. Moreover, the technique presented is not computationally expensive so it seems well suited to be implemented in an operational environment.

Stationarity analysis of historical flood series in France and Spain (14th-20th centuries)

Stationarity analysis of historical flood series in France and Spain (14th-20th centuries) Barriendos i Vallvé, Mariano; Coeur, D.; Lang, M.; Llasat Botija, María del Carmen; Naulet, R.; Lemaitre, F.; Barrera Escoda, Antonio Interdisciplinary frameworks for studying natural hazards and their temporal trends have an important potential in data generation for risk assessment, land use planning, and therefore the sustainable management of resources. This paper focuses on the adjustments required because of the wide variety of scientific fields involved in the reconstruction and characterisation of flood events for the past 1000 years. The aim of this paper is to describe various methodological aspects of the study of flood events in their historical dimension, including the critical evaluation of old documentary and instrumental sources, flood-event classification and hydraulic modelling, and homogeneity and quality control tests. Standardized criteria for flood classification have been defined and applied to the Isère and Drac floods in France, from 1600 to 1950, and to the Ter, the Llobregat and the Segre floods, in Spain, from 1300 to 1980. The analysis on the Drac and Isère data series from 1600 to the present day showed that extraordinary and catastrophic floods were not distributed uniformly in time. However, the largest floods (general catastrophic floods) were homogeneously distributed in time within the period 1600¿1900. No major flood occurred during the 20th century in these rivers. From 1300 to the present day, no homogeneous behaviour was observed for extraordinary floods in the Spanish rivers. The largest floods were uniformly distributed in time within the period 1300-1900, for the Segre and Ter rivers.

RECERCAT - Articles publicats en revistes (Astronomia i Meteorologia)